The legal fraternity for one, look set to enjoy a field day, if Trump’s first 30 days are anything to go by. We have witnessed myriad nominations, acting appointments and Executive Orders that will excite Congress and antagonise Trump’s critics.
Is there any ground for optimism that the Trump second term is not going to turn out as painfully as critics fear?
Go deeper with GlobalData
To mark Trump’s first 30 days back in office, investment platform Saxo engaged with two of the sharpest observers of the US political scene in Adam Kinzinger and Anthony Scaramucci. And Saxo enabled GlobalData to sound out Trump’s former Communications Director, Scaramucci and the ex-US Republican Representative, Kinzinger, on the prospects for the second term.
RBI: Will Trump 2.0 pan out as badly as some of us fear?
Anthony Scaramucci: I think the thing that’s going to make Trump 2.0 not disastrous, is time. You don’t have enough time. A lot of the stuff he’s going to do is going to get blocked.
Adam Kinzinger: I think he’s the direct opposite of where I and frankly most kind of traditional Republicans have stood on America’s role in the world and what our role should be with our allies. I think if you’re looking for hope that it’s not going to be a disaster or as disastrous, it’s not going to be for me.
RBI: What do you make of the appointments to date? Do any of the picks look sensible appointments that can give some confidence that this will be a grown-up, responsible administration ?
Anthony Scaramucci: The White House is very concerned about all these prosecutors quitting here in New York over the deal that he cut this very open wound. And so, it’s not just the picks. Bent is a good pick. I feel bad for Rubio because Rubio looks completely out of it. He doesn’t know what to say because Trump is doing things that are so antithetical to common sense. Trump says he’s about common sense and then he sends Vance to give this stupid ass speech.
So, I don’t know if it’s any picks as much as it’s time. Remember, after the midterms, if he doesn’t declare martial law or end the election – something very hard to do in a country like this – I think he’s out of office and the question is who’s going to replace him? And they don’t have a personality like Trump to replace him.
Adam Kinzinger: There are a few good picks. Let’s be clear. Robert C O’Brien is pretty good, right? I know Marco Rubio, and this is a guy that is now saying things and doing things that ten years ago he never would have believed me if I told him he was going to say. For instance, backing, Donald Trump, talking about the role of America and Ukraine should be less. But that’s a good pick. But I think most of his picks, they’re very clear about one thing, a political agenda. This is not an American first political agenda. It’s a nationalist Donald Trump political agenda that’s cloaked itself in conservatism and nationalism.
RBI: So how should Trump’s Republican critics and Democrat opponents plan for Trump 2.0?
Anthony Scaramucci: The Democrats unfortunately don’t have a personality either that they’re willing to galvanise around. If I were the Democrats, I would team up with the former Republicans. I would go to Christie and Haley and I would create a fusion government to beat the MAGA people. The Republican party has really been taken over by Trump. It’s Republican in name only. It’s really the MAGA party.
I would have Adam [Kinzinger] and I would have Haley and Christy But you see the hard left of the Democrats make it hard for them to do that. But I would tell these guys, ‘Hey man, hold your nose. Get in the boat together and start rowing.’ The same way the Brits had to during the war, these coalition governments, I think, could defeat the insanity that were faced with the MAGA people.
Adam Kinzinger: I don’t have a lot of confidence in this second Trump administration. I’m hoping that I’m wrong for the sake of the country in the world, but if not, we’re just going to continue to stand up and I think we need to paint an alternative vision, remind people what actual conservatism really is, and frankly be ready for the end of the Trump administration.
RBI: How fearful should the UK be of the Trump administration with regards to tariffs and possible global trade war?
Anthony Scaramucci: There’s lots of splashing in the water, lots of theatrics, but I don’t think he’s going to ever really get there. And I don’t think he’s ever going to fully impose the tariffs that he’s talking about. I mean, remember, we get lots of our energy and our electricity from Canada. Do you want to see Southern California’s energy shut off? You’re getting 78% of the aluminum for our car manufacturers from Canada. Do you want to stop all of the production? I think it’s a lot of bombast and I think when those policies meet the impact of the stock market, Trump is going to blink. And as he should, because he’ll put the world into a recession.
Adam Kinzinger: Donald Trump is trying to appear tough right now. You look at backing down with Mexico. He wants to look like he’s getting extra, he’s extracting something. He only goes after our allies because it’s easy to do. He knows he’s not going to start a real war with an ally, right?
Canada’s not going to attack us. But he’s unwilling to really take on Russia, for instance. Americans would be supportive of putting tariffs on China. We understand that China has had really unfair trade practices with us, and this may be a way to fight back on that. Americans are ready to accept that. But it’s our allies that I don’t think the vast majority of Americans understand why we’re fighting.
We should be having a great trade agreement with the UK, not talking about how to damage this relationship. The best advice I can give to the UK and Europe is, stand up to this guy. I recognise that there may be disproportionate damage to certain parts of Europe in a trade war with the United States. I don’t think it’ll go to a full-blown trade war, but with some trade sanctions. But the best advice I can give for Europe is come together, find your areas of strength, and actually fight back. Because the thing I’ve learned in knowing Donald Trump for a decade, as I have, is that just like Vladimir Putin, he’ll continue to advance and to make statements until somebody pushes back on him and then he stops cold.
So, I think it’s important for Europe to find areas where there is strength to actually fight back in the US, even if it’s little things like, banning Kentucky bourbon. Putting significant tariffs on bourbon because that affects red states. There’s creative ways to do this as much as I hate to say it, to make Americans feel pain because that’s the only way that Donald Trump will back down.
Lynyak advises banking clients to exercise patience
Short term, in financial services the future of agencies such as the CFPB will run and run. Distinguished US attorney Joseph Lynyak has been flooded with requests for guidance from clients regarding mooted financial services legal and regulatory changes. Lynyak, a partner at Dorsey & Whitney specialising in the CFPB banking regulation, tells RBI: “The aggressive exercise of executive authority has resulted in a wave of lawsuits seeking to halt the Administration’s numerous actions and directives. During the course of litigation, in several instances plaintiffs have been successful already in obtaining partial or complete national injunctions that have halted or significantly slowed the pace of changes being implemented by the Administration.
Meantime, Lynyak is telling banking clients that patience is necessary before adopting strategic and tactical plans while the legal authority of the Administration and concomitant challenges by opponents are resolved.
Saxo Bank has created an election hub, link here, for exclusive content surrounding the US election and aftermath
